Crescent Magazine

MD, Toronto, Crescent-online
June 13, 2010 - 1:00 pm EST

Turkey signed an economic deal with Syria, Jordan and Lebanon on June 10 creating a free trade zone. The economic treaty aims to establish a cooperation council to create a zone for free movement of goods and persons. The treaty was also supported by the EU which assumes that Turkish expansion eastwards will save it from Turkish insistence on becoming a member of EU.

During the signing ceremony at the Turkish-Arab Economic Forum, delegates from various Arab states burst into applause as Turkey's Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan walked to the podium. It seems Prime Minister Erdogan’s growing popularity in the Muslim world did not bypass the bureaucrats of the Arab regimes.
   
Turkish economic expansion eastwards shows that Turkey is aiming to lead a return to the Muslim world both at the political and economic levels. Given the latest economic statistics for 2008 in terms of GDP-PPP ranking Turkey as the 15th largest economy in the world, economic expansion into the Middle East will not be a big challenge for it. The Turkish path of development has long since been an attractive model for many impoverished Arab countries; therefore many entities will be open to the idea of doing business with Turkey.

Turkey has made some courageous political and economic moves in terms of its regional policies recently. However, it must be noted that as of now Turkey has not taken any strategic steps in reshaping the power balance in the region. Until recently Turkey was treated as a vassal state of the US and Israel; thus any independent policies by Turkey are immediately greeted with excitement. Sometimes such excitement is exaggerated. Sending a military ship to escort a humanitarian freedom flotilla into Gaza as promised by Prime Minister Erdogan would be one of the strategic acts that would reshape the political landscape of the region. Such a move would create a political dilemma for NATO since Turkey is a member and would demonstrate Ankara’s ability to walk the walk and not just talk the talk.

If Turkey does send a naval escort to protect the humanitarian aid flotilla it will put itself in a win-win situation. If Turkish ships manage to get the aid flotilla into Gaza it will destroy Israel’s deterrence and credibility. If Turkish ships come under attack, NATO will be forced to either protect Turkey or side with its ideological ally Israel. In that event, NATO will lose its credibility as an alliance. Such a scenario will truly demonstrate Turkey’s commitment to attain its independence from Washington and create a new political reality in the region.

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MD, Toronto, Crescent-online
June 13, 2010-10:00 am EST

The emergence of a new Shia-led alliance in Iraq has boosted the chances of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki to form the next government. This will further eclipse the west's favourite, Iyad Allawi who had been making loud noises about his secularist alliance being on the verge of forming the next government, blessed by the US.

Formation of the National Alliance by the State of Law group led by Prime Minister al-Maliki and the Iraqi National Alliance led by Ammar al-Hakim was announced on June 10 making it the largest bloc in the newly elected parliament though still four seats short of a clear majority. Two days later, the new alliance held a meeting with Allawi's Iraqiya group but it proved inconclusive.

The Iraqi parliament is scheduled to hold its first session on June 14 and members of the new ly formed National Alliance that include Muqtada al-Sadr appear to have boosted their chances of retaining power.

Allawi, a secular Shi'a and former prime minister, has warned Iraq risks a return to full-blown sectarian warfare if Iraqiya is denied the right to lead the government. Some of his Sunni allies in the Iraqiya alliance, however, fear they risk being locked out of a governing coalition completely if Allawi continues to insist on heading the government. On June 10, Allawi wrote and Op-ed piece in the Washington Post appealing to the US for help and asking it to stay in Iraq.

US inability to install Allawi as prime minister several months after he was allowed to win the “elections” is creating panic among Allawi’s partners, especially the Iraqi Turkmen Front (ITF) which was co-opted by the US occupation forces to join Allawi’s bloc.

Under Iraq's election law, the largest coalition in parliament takes the lead in forming a new government. As of now, the largest coalition does not belong to Allawi but to his opponent Maliki. This small bureaucratic detail of the US-manufactured system is about to spoil the installment of the US puppet in Iraq.

On several occasions Allawi has stated bluntly stated that if his bloc does not form a government, Iraq will plunge into violence. Given Allawi's Saudi backer, it will come as no surprise if al-Qaeda is unleashed to disrupt a non-Allawi government.

Since Barack Obama has promised to withdraw some US troops from Iraq by August, the pressure is now on to install a US puppet. Allawi’s chances of becoming the prime minister have receding considerably. Washington may simply accept any candidate who will compromise enough in order to maintain Iraqi subservience to the US.

Thus, the US will probably accept Maliki as its subordinate in Iraq. Once this takes place Washington will have to placate the Saudis and contain the shadowy hand of the CIA through al-Qaeda. Another fiasco awaits the US in Iraq.

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Tehran-Crescent-online
June 12, 2010 - 2:00 pm EST

People in Tehran and other major Iranian cities went about their business on the first anniversary of Iran's presidential elections that had given President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad a landslide victory. Before the June 12 anniversary, there was much media hype in the west hoping there would be a repeat of the riots that erupted immediately after the 2009 elections.

Three days earlier, defeated candidates Mir Hussein Mousavi and Mehdi Karoubi announced at a press conference that they would not be holding any rallies. They cited lack of approval from the authorities but the fact is they could not muster much support from the people. Further, the FIFA world cup fever undermined their efforts to mobilise people when most Iranians, avid soccer fans, were engrossed in the game.

Exposing US involvement in last year's riots, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said it was "regrttable" that Iranian opposition leaders had called off the protest rallies. Clinton clearly wanted to see rioters burn buses and buildings, many of them paid for by the US, as they did last year.
 
US President Barack Obama on June 10 urged the world (what world, one wonders?) to support the Iranian people in their fight for "freedom". "The courage of the Iranian people stands as an example to us and it challenges us to continue our efforts to bend the arch of history in the direction of justice," Obama said in a statement. The US has not given up its old habit of interfering in other people's internal affairs and forcing them to bend their policies to suit its aggressive and exploitative policies.

With such brazen interference in Iran's internal affairs, some Americans are still surprised why their government is hated so much worldwide.

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Moscow-Crescent-online
June 12, 2010 - 1:00 pm EST

Russian President Dimitri Medvedev turned down a dramatic televised appeal by Kyrgyzstan’s acting leader, Roza Otunbayeva on June 12 for military help to quell rioting in the violence torn Central Asian Republic. Otunbayeva admitted troops loyal to her provisional government had lost control, especially in the south where support for ousted president Kurmanbek Bakiyev is still strong.

While a state of emergency has been declared, the security situation in the second largest city Osh, and Jalalabad, hometown of the ousted president, remains precarious. Anti-government rioting has been complicated by ethnic fighting between Kyrgyz and Uzbek groups in the south. Tens of thousands of Uzbeks have fled to the border region to escape attacks by pro-Bakiyev Kyrgyz supporters.

Gangs of Kyrgyz youth with gasoline cans and home-made bombs are rampaging through Osh and Jalalabad setting fire to Uzbek homes. Kyrgyz and Russian news agencies have reported at least 60 deaths and more than 650 wounded in two days of rioting that erupted on June 10, quoting Yelena K. Bayalinova, a Health Ministry spokeswoman.

Kyrgyzstan's former president Bakiyev was ousted last April after an uprising following increases in utility and food prices.

The violence has shaken the authority of the provisional government, which has deployed troops, armored personnel carriers and helicopters but now appears to have lost control, at least in the south, hence the dramatic appeal to Russia for help.

Gunfire continued to be heard and there was scattered fighting even after a 6 pm curfew in Osh. There were also reports that Kyrgyz youth in Bishkek, the capital, tried to commandeer minibuses and drive them to Osh to join the fighting against Uzbeks.

Riot police were called out in Bishkek to prevent looting and anarchy.

Otunbayeva has accused supporters of the former president for instigating the riots aimed at undermining stability ahead of a referendum scheduled for June 27 on adopting a new Constitution.

In the ethnic cauldron of Kyrgyzstan, it is easy to instigate trouble. Some reports have suggested that violence erupted as a result of fighting between groups of young Uzbeks and Kyrgyz in Osh. This was exploited by the ousted president's supporters to undermine the provisional government's authority that itself is ridden with factionalism having seized power when a spontaneous uprising against Bakiyev erupted last April.

In the aftermath of the uprising, opposition forces established control in Bishkek and the north of the country and announced formation of a provisional government but its hold on the south has remained tenuous where the ousted president still has support.

Last month, Bakiyev's supporters stormed government buildings in Jalalabad and Osh and drove out local leaders loyal to the provisional government. Loyalist troops had to be mobilized to regain control. Two people were killed and dozens wounded in those clashes.
 
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